The Long-Term Value at Risk Series
Nine working papers on transition readiness risk across the largest listed entities in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. Measured, not asserted. Published and citable.
The argument
Transition readiness risk is real01. It persists when regulation retreats02. Cost curves date it03. It pays a dividend04. It is correlated, so diversification does not escape it05. Its architecture reverses through the long tail06. It is mislabelled as alpha where it is extracted07. It is unfunded at every altitude08. And it is fundable09.
A primary assessment of 1,052 listed entities across 21 exchanges. Six risk channels, published in full. The gap between stated intention and funded readiness, priced.
Flinn & Pile
Transition pressure runs through three forces: regulatory, capital, and market. Two of them are indifferent to the regulatory weather. The risk does not retreat when the rules do.
Wright's Law makes the energy crossover a date, not a forecast. The cost event strands capital with a lag. Dated across 17 Asian economies. The repricing window is open now.
A departure from a century of externality economics. Where clean costs fall below fossil, the market retires the need to price the harm. The commercial case and the social case converge on the same decision.
Climate-exposed risk is correlated, not idiosyncratic, so diversification books a benefit that does not materialise. The largest allocators have begun to recognise it: pricing the correlation lifts the modelled risk profile by an order of magnitude.
Risk transmits down a value chain and accumulates as it travels. The same architecture carries readiness up when the bottom is engaged. The long tail is where the system turns.
Flinn & Schiller
Financial, human, and planetary returns converge. The paper draws the line between value that is created and value that is extracted and mislabelled as outperformance.
Transition readiness across the MSME tier that no listed frame can see. Leadership perception evidence from 900 firms over four waves. The cost-free levers that separate movers from the static.
The working-capital case for funding supplier transition, written to the CFO and the CPO. The balance sheet is not the constraint. The decision to ring-fence the funds is.
On method
◆Every channel architecture, learning rate, and headline figure in the series is public and citable. The scoring grid, weights, and per-entity values stay proprietary. The line is deliberate. What is published is sufficient to check the argument. What is held is the instrument. The approach is verifiable without being reproducible.
Read the work
The series speaks to stewards of long-term capital, to exchanges and regulators whose national regime is the unit that readiness tracks, and to development and blended capital, for whom the co-benefit is the mandate. Every paper is free to read.